Forever Craps by Frank Scoblete

craps

This book is over ten years old now and, unfortunately, behind the latest in Scoblete’s craps adventures. His first book, BEAT THE CRAPS OUT OF THE CASINOS, was pretty conventional advice on craps, but then added stories of a someone he calls The Captain who loves playing craps with his friends (his crew).

They’re probably very friendly and nice people, but it’s hard to get caught up in the emotion of playing craps with people who we — unlike Scoblete — don’t know personally.

However, he also included a “5 count” system which was advice from the Captain. At first glance this seems like a trend following system, because you’re counting good throws by the dice thrower.

If craps is truly a totally random game, then the best the 5 count will do for you is save you some money by keeping you from betting as often. With negative expectation games (which craps is, if totally random), the less you bet, the less you lose.

However, what Scoblete has revealed is that the Captain arrived at this through observing that some people are natural rhythmic shooters. Somehow, and it’s almost always unconscious and unintended, they throw the dice so that 7 comes up less often than chance says it should. With just a few less 7s in the game, the odds shift from favoring the casino to favoring the player.

Of course, this is hard to prove. You’d have to set up controlled experiments and run a statistically valid number of trials, which would take a long time. And the casino wouldn’t allow it, and neither would the subjects. It wouldn’t be any fun.

And you have to accept the proposition that it’s even possible to control the dice enough to shift the expectation. Because casino rules say you must hit the odd-shaped rubber bumpers at the end of the table, that’s a big if.

(Before this practice was instituted, dice “mechanics” would could control the dice by tossing them flat so they slid along the table, could take money from Las Vegas casinos.)

And if it is possible, is it possible for people who aren’t consciously aware of how to do it? We know that people do try, in a primitive way — they “set” the dice in their fingers before they throw. That is normal to see, but I doubt it does any good, at least in most cases.

However, Jerry Patterson has come out with books and a seminar on how to throw dice so you control the outcome. He found someone nicknamed Sharpshooter who supposedly can do this.

Scoblete as since gone down the same road with someone named the Dominator.

Do their techniques work? I don’t know. If you go to Vegas or other casinos a lot, like to play craps, and are willing to practice a lot, buy his latest book, maybe go to the seminar, and find out.

However, even if it’s possible, it’s obviously a physical skill demanding good coordination and practice. And it will take documenting thousands of throws before you can be sure you’re throwing fewer 7s than randomness says. Don’t risk your money in a casino until you’re sure.

 


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July 6, 2014: posted in Craps No Comments

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