Craps Systems – Guaranteed to Fail

crapsCraps Systems – Guaranteed to Fail

The game of craps that is played today is around 200 years old. Craps systems are about 15 minutes younger. Trying to come up with a system to win consistently at craps is equivalent to trying to invent a perpetual motion machine. The latter is impossible by the first and second law of thermodynamics, just as the former is impossible by the house edge of the casino.

The purpose of a The game of craps that is played today is around 200 years old. Craps systems are about 15 minutes younger. Trying to come up with a system to win consistently at craps is equivalent to trying to invent a perpetual motion machine. The latter is impossible by the first and second law of thermodynamics, just as the former is impossible by the house edge of the casino.

The purpose of a craps system is to use various techniques to overcome the house edge. This is impossible, since the house edge is tied directly to the outcome on all dice rolls. No matter what system is used the house edge is always there. In other words, when you lose, the casino wins, when you win, the casino wins, and you still lose. Here’s an example, if a player bets one dollar on the number 12, for a one-roll bet on a casino craps table and wins, they will be paid 30 dollars. The true odds for that one-roll bet are 35:1. So while the player wins, they also lose 5 dollars. Remember, there are no bad bets on a crap table, just bad payouts.

Other flaws that craps systems are based on include such things as the gambler’s fallacy (the incorrect belief that an event that is overdue is more likely to happen) or the reverse gambler’s fallacy (the belief that an event that happens frequently means it will continue to occur). Since each roll of the dice is independent of every other roll, these beliefs are totally erroneous. In other words, dice don’t have a memory.

Over the long run, the best any craps system can hope for is to help limit the player’s losses, having said that, it is possible for any system to be a winner in the short term. (Just like flipping a coin ten times and coming up heads eight times. Probability says the results should be five heads and five tails, but the 10 coin flips are such a small sample that large swings in results are expected). It is when these systems are used for any extended period of time that they will all break down. That’s when the “Law of Large Numbers” (flip the same coin 100,000 times and the results will be much closer to the true probability of half heads and half tails) kicks in and crushes the craps system.

There is one system that you can use to get around the casinos’ 500-pound gorilla house edge. Take a beginner with you to the craps table and let them use their money to make a pass line bet (which has the house edge), then use your money to place the odds bet (which has no house edge). You now have a free and fair chance to make money at the craps table.craps system is to use various techniques to overcome the house edge. This is impossible, since the house edge is tied directly to the outcome on all dice rolls. No matter what system is used the house edge is always there. In other words, when you lose, the casino wins, when you win, the casino wins, and you still lose. Here’s an example, if a player bets one dollar on the number 12, for a one-roll bet on a casino craps table and wins, they will be paid 30 dollars. The true odds for that one-roll bet are 35:1. So while the player wins, they also lose 5 dollars. Remember, there are no bad bets on a crap table, just bad payouts.

Other flaws that craps systems are based on include such things as the gambler’s fallacy (the incorrect belief that an event that is overdue is more likely to happen) or the reverse gambler’s fallacy (the belief that an event that happens frequently means it will continue to occur). Since each roll of the dice is independent of every other roll, these beliefs are totally erroneous. In other words, dice don’t have a memory.

Over the long run, the best any craps system can hope for is to help limit the player’s losses, having said that, it is possible for any system to be a winner in the short term. (Just like flipping a coin ten times and coming up heads eight times. Probability says the results should be five heads and five tails, but the 10 coin flips are such a small sample that large swings in results are expected). It is when these systems are used for any extended period of time that they will all break down. That’s when the “Law of Large Numbers” (flip the same coin 100,000 times and the results will be much closer to the true probability of half heads and half tails) kicks in and crushes the craps system.

There is one system that you can use to get around the casinos’ 500-pound gorilla house edge. Take a beginner with you to the craps table and let them use their money to make a pass line bet (which has the house edge), then use your money to place the odds bet (which has no house edge). You now have a free and fair chance to make money at the craps table.

December 2, 2013: posted in Mistakes And Bad Bets No Comments

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